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  1. Monseratto's Avatar
    Monseratto
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    October 4th, 2019 12:02 PM #9721
    Could also be a technical rally...

    Quote Originally Posted by uls View Post
    stocks fell initially then rallied

    Why?

    coz bad news is good news

    ISM non-manufacturing fell to 52.6 in September (3 yr low)

    the market is now expecting another rate cut
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    October 4th, 2019 02:43 PM #9722
    after ISM services data



    ^^

    current Fed target rate is 175-200 bps

    market expecting 25 bps cut later this month
    Last edited by uls; October 4th, 2019 at 02:45 PM.
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    uls
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    October 4th, 2019 06:23 PM #9723
    US jobs report tonight

    if the report shows weakness the probability of a rate cut this month will rise to almost 100% --> downside pressure on USD, gold will be bid

    if the report meets or exceeds expectations the market will ignore it anyway

    coz there's no longer any doubt the US economy is slowing down
    Last edited by uls; October 4th, 2019 at 06:27 PM.
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    October 4th, 2019 10:39 PM #9724
    Quote Originally Posted by uls View Post
    US jobs report tonight

    if the report shows weakness the probability of a rate cut this month will rise to almost 100% --> downside pressure on USD, gold will be bid

    if the report meets or exceeds expectations the market will ignore it anyway

    coz there's no longer any doubt the US economy is slowing down
    Hirings 135k vs market expectation 146k...
    U.S. Added 136, Jobs in September; Unemployment Rate at 3.5% - The New York Times

    Sent from my Mi 9T Pro using Tapatalk
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    October 5th, 2019 10:50 AM #9725
    Fed rate cut probability a little lower after the jobs report

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    October 7th, 2019 04:31 PM #9726
    Sounds of inevitability

    The Trumponomics experiment is failing before our eyes - Business Insider

    At least the world now knows not to trust the US...
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    October 7th, 2019 04:55 PM #9727
    ^^^

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    October 9th, 2019 06:57 PM #9728
    early 2018 i saw signs the global economy was slowing down

    more than a year later...

    Annual Meetings 219 "Curtain Raiser" Speech



    #################################

    Last edited by uls; October 9th, 2019 at 07:00 PM.
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    October 9th, 2019 07:24 PM #9729
    The Brits just loss more Goodwill points from the EU...



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    October 10th, 2019 03:25 PM #9730
    Trumpy signs off approval for chipmakers Quallcomm, Micron and others to sell again to Huawei. After relentless lobbying by the chipmakers, who are afraid of losing a big volume customer. But seems the gesture is too late... Huawei is already making their own Kirin Chips.


    Trump Signs Off on Licenses for Doing Business With Huawei - WSJ
    Last edited by Monseratto; October 10th, 2019 at 03:32 PM.
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