Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

**Lucius** · October 1st, 2009 08:54 PM

Get ready for Pepe...ng

**niky** · October 1st, 2009 09:30 PM

Category 5 na daw?

Winds of 240... gustiness of... gads... I don't even want to look...

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1045522435538

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapc...rma/index.html

**cutedoc** · October 1st, 2009 09:38 PM

i dont think pepeng will give that much rain to cause even half the flood ondoy did, most water had been poured by ondoy, though wind gustiness is what to expect this time much like milenyo...

i suggest giant billboards of kris aquino be temporarily be removed from edsa...

during milenyo, manila was a direct hit, pepeng i dont think manila will be a direct hit as well, from how i observe it, it will only hit manila at the strongest of 100kph, its 240kph now but as it move towards our direction it slows down as it crosses the oceans and mountains...

ot:i was watching the sagip kapamilya last sunday morning and before lunchtime abs was able to get pledges of more than 15 million, was that thanks to kris? who hosted the show, most of the pledges came from the company she endorses...

**Monseratto** · October 1st, 2009 11:05 PM

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H86EMYS23ug]Weather Forecast Update on "SUPER" Typhoon "PARMA". Thursday CNN[/ame]

**roberto_minosa** · October 1st, 2009 11:26 PM

Wow, faster than a speeding Camry. God help us.

**shadow** · October 1st, 2009 11:27 PM

this time around I'll be very happy na maging mali ang forecast ng PAGASA

**niky** · October 2nd, 2009 07:31 AM

Hmmm... Apparently, CNN takes their speed averages in a different manner from everyone else... all other agencies report 190-195 km/h winds (which are still pretty freaking fast)... so Pepeng is not a Category Five yet...

No rains here... yet.

**Hanren** · October 2nd, 2009 07:49 AM

From : http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp1909.gif

From http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0917.html

**Hanren** · October 2nd, 2009 07:54 AM

Some numerical models actually take it back to the South China once it has crossed the tip of Luzon because of its interaction with another Typhoon just to the east.

URL: http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/wa...wp1909prog.txt

WDPN33 PGTW 011500MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/

PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 19W (PARMA)WARNING NR 16// RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TO A TYPHOON. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES (AS SEEN IN THE 011200Z SOUNDING FROM RPMT) IN THE MID LEVELS HAS CAUSED EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, LOWERING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES TO 5.5 WITH RJTD REMAINING AT 7.0. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO ENCOUNTERED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 T0 30 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

THESE TWO FACTORS CAUSED A LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TRACKING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN LUZON.3. FORECAST REASONING A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.

B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT NEAR TAU 72.

THE SYSTEM WILL RECOVER INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE OUTLIERS OF THE GFDN, JGSM, AND GFS MODELS. GFDN TAKES A MORE WESTERLY COURSE INTO CENTRAL LUZON BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 48. GFS AND JGSM NEITHER MAKE LANDFALL, WITH JGSM TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 12 AND ASSUMING A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AFTER TAU 48. GFS TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 24, AND RECURVES AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINING NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, TCLAPS, WBAR, EGRR AND ECMWF) MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 48 BEFORE BIFURCATING. WBAR AND TCLAPS TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE LUZON STRAIT, WHILE NOGAPS, EGRR AND ECMWF TURN WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.

C. AFTER TAU 72, TY PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH NORTHERN LUZON'S TOPOGRAPHY. ONCE IT CROSSES INTO LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL REMAIN AT STRONG TYPHOON INTENSITY.

DURING THIS PERIOD, TYPHOON PARMA WILL SLOW DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION AS A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) COMMENCES. AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. AFTER TAU 72 THE TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW, WITH THIS FORECAST FAVORING THE NOGAPS, EGRR AND ECMWF SOLUTION OF A TURN INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR TY 19W REMAINS COMPLICATED BY POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TY 20W TO THE EAST AND INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH (THE SOURCE OF THE BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE).//NNNN

**jjmd3_787** · October 2nd, 2009 09:15 AM

Originally Posted by Cathy_for_you

Any update on the Super Typhoon?

CNN says it will hit on Friday evening while PAGASA says Saturday afternoon.

PAGASA announced early this morning that Typhoon Pepeng will be arriving in Northern Luzon on Saturday morning with sustained winds of 195khp and gustiness of 230khp . . . if it does not veer off course.

[SIZE=1]SOURCE: DZMM interview with PAGASA * 8am[/SIZE]