World economy talk

**Ry_Tower** · June 20th, 2012 11:05 AM

Originally Posted by uls

so what's the Fed gonna do?

A: nothing

B: extend ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) beyond late 2014

C: extend Operation Twist (which ends this month)

D: QE3

They surely extend ZIRP IMO.

**uls** · June 20th, 2012 11:30 AM

Brent will fall below $95 if the Fed doesnt do anything

**uls** · June 20th, 2012 11:28 PM

did i mention a Cyprus bank?

Cyprus to seek aid from Russia, eurozone - timesofmalta.com

Wednesday, June 20, 2012, 15:42
Cyprus to seek aid from Russia, eurozone

Cyprus will ask Russia for a loan of between €3.0 billion and €5.0 billion before the weekend and then request aid from its eurozone partners for its ailing banks, an EU diplomat said today.

"First we try to get a bilateral loan from Russia," said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

He said Nicosia would probably request eurozone aid next week for its banks along the lines of an offer made to Spain.

--

btw, Greece has a govt

ATHENS (Reuters) - Conservative leader Antonis Samaras was formally sworn in as Greek prime minister on Wednesday after center-left rivals agreed to back a government led by his New Democracy party.

**uls** · June 21st, 2012 02:10 AM

Fed

no change in late 2014 guidance

no QE3

Operation Twist extended to yearend

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement --June 20, 2012

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. Specifically, the Committee intends to purchase Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace and to sell or redeem an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less. This continuation of the maturity extension program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

**uls** · June 21st, 2012 12:49 PM

China

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's factory sector contracted for an eighth straight month in June, with export orders and prices turning in their weakest showing since early 2009, a private-sector survey showed on Thursday.

The HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest monthly indicator of China's industrial activity, fell to a seven-month low of 48.1 in June from a final reading of 48.4 in May.

It marked the eighth consecutive month that the HSBC PMI has been below 50, indicating contraction.
Both input and output prices dived to their lowest levels in over two years as a sub-index measuring output hit a three-month low.

The new orders sub-index fell in June and the new export orders sub-index dropped even more sharply, to 45.9, its lowest level since March 2009, the data compiled by Markit Economics Research shows.

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**Ry_Tower** · June 21st, 2012 04:44 PM

Originally Posted by uls

China

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In addition, US growth rate forecast binawasa pa ulit.
Shares dip as US, China worry investors - Yahoo!7

**uls** · June 21st, 2012 05:30 PM

^^

kagabi US

from the Fed statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately this year. However, growth in employment has slowed in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has declined, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

that's why the Fed extended Op Twist. should have ended this month. they see weakness in the US economy

**uls** · June 22nd, 2012 10:00 AM

risk off mode

last night the Philadelphia Fed released a shocking number

(Reuters) - Factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region contracted for a second month in a row in June to its lowest level in 10 months as new orders tumbled, a survey showed on Thursday.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index dropped to minus 16.6 from minus 5.8 in May, far below economists' expectations for a reading of zero, according to a Reuters poll.

Goldman Sachs told clients to short the S&P 500

here's part of the client note:

We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close above 1390. This morning, the Philly Fed print of -16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further evidence that weakness has extended into June.

**uls** · June 23rd, 2012 10:39 AM

this could be the start of something

POLITICS - Turkey confirms that Syria shot down warplane

Turkey has officially announced that one of its jets was shot down yesterday by Syria while vowing to take the necessary steps once the incident is fully clarified.

"In the light of the information gathered, it's been understood that our aircraft was shot down by Syria," said a government statement issue following a high-level security meeting late yesterday.

Search and rescue efforts to locate the plane’s two missing pilots are continuing, it said, adding that the efforts were being assisted by Syrian vessels.

"Turkey will take all necesary steps and will take its final position after the full [explanation] of the incident," the statement said.
A Turkish source had said yesterday that Syria expressed sorrow after the incident, in which a Turkish jet went down in Syrian territorial waters just before noon yesterday.

Turkey is a NATO member

**safeorigin** · June 23rd, 2012 02:33 PM

Yip, media is even more agitated with Clinton's claims of helicopters being shipped recently to Syria. Having another unconstitutional war in the mill seems inevitable.