Philippine Economy Talk

[uls]

someone: they'll refinance

me: AT WHAT INTEREST RATE??

[ray_noel]

Galing ng u.s... after they let the emerging markets barrowed their currency at low interest rates, ngayon ang mahal na... pinasanay tapos if you want more, pay extra... kaya yung mga nakabaon sa usd currency, no option...


Disclaimer: my Noob observation

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[uls]

hindi sadya ng US

mababa kasi dati ang interest rates (after 2008 financial crisis the Fed lowered rates to zero)

kaya mga investor naghanap ng higher returns sa labas

sa emerging markets nagpunta

syempre EM have to pay higher interest coz they're riskier

tons of dollars looking for a place to park and EM borrowers were more than happy to take advantage

the thinking is the Fed will keep rates low forever so no problem

but the Fed didn't keep rates low forever

WRONG BET

now EM has a problem

[Monseratto]

Peso regained some ground, oil price dropping four weeks in a row and Stock market closed the month with a rare 100 plus points...

[uls]

hearing people say PH inflation has peaked

we'll see

PSA will release Oct inflation data on Nov 6

--

kakataas lang ng pamasahe today

and there's the pending increase sa minimum wage

those will add inflationary pressure

[Monseratto]

Hmmm...




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[badkuk]

So why is it dropping? OFW remittances coming in? Baka napaaga because of Ompong

[uls]

internationalization of RMB

PH banks and Bank of China sign agreement on RMB PHP direct convertibility bypassing USD

[uls]

despite the stronger dollar

dollar index:


USD weakened against PHP (peso strengthened)

USDPHP:



factors:

1. perception that PH inflation has peaked and will decline going forward

2. Hawkish BSP

[uls]

Minimum wage increased to P537 per day

from P512

-

limited wage hike so as not to drive up inflation