Philippine Economy Talk

[Ketib]

Jeepney groups now want P12 minimum fare

kung pinagbigyan yan lalo tataas inflation rate

Meet halfway, "DYES"!

[Monseratto]

55 before December?

[uls]

me:

as inflation rate keeps rising, the market will keep demanding higher interest from the government

Philippines sold 5.73b pesos of 7-year bonds at an average yield of 7.085% from 5.976% in June when it last sold similar debt

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[Monseratto]

Maybe the goverment should consider this too...




What Else Is Left in Indonesia's Toolbox to Help Bolster the Rupiah?

[minicarph]

Jeepney groups now want P12 minimum fare

kung pinagbigyan yan lalo tataas inflation rate

actually uls may plano talaga itaas ang jeepney fare up to P20 para pagpasok na ng mga beep card saka yun jeepney modernization, P20 na minimum

[Monseratto]

Prediction BSP 50 bps increase today...?

“Indonesia and the Philippines will raise rates to anchor their currencies as risks remain,” said Joey Cuyegkeng, a senior economist at ING Groep NV in Manila. “For Indonesia, it’s about financial instability. A weak rupiah may cause instability in their markets and cause outflows. But for the Philippines, it’s inflation and inflation expectations.”

Of the 36 economists in the survey, 27 predict Bank Indonesia will raise its benchmark rate to 5.75 percent from 5.5 percent, while seven are forecasting a 50 basis-point hike. Two see no change. In a separate survey, all but two of the 22 economists said Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will boost the key rate to 4.5 percent from 4 percent.

Alongside India, the Philippines and Indonesia run widening current-account deficits, making them more vulnerable to a slump in investor sentiment.

It's Asia's Turn as Worst Hit Nations Set to Hike Rates

[uls]

Prediction BSP 50 bps increase today...?



It's Asia's Turn as Worst Hit Nations Set to Hike Rates

you mean tomorrow

at least 25 bps

50 bps expected

[Monseratto]

ADB downgrades Philippine economic growth outlook | Money | GMA News Online

The Philippines is unlikely to meet its economic growth targets for this year and 2019, given the widening trade gap and a slowdown in the agriculture sector and exports, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Wednesday.

The Manila-based ADB also noted higher inflation and global headwinds would make it difficult for the country to achieve its growth goals.

In a press conference in Pasig City, ADB country director for the Philippines Kelly Bird said the ADB revised its economic growth outlook to 6.4 percent this year from an earlier outlook of 6.8 percent.

For 2019, the bank revised its growth outlook to 6.7 percent from 6.9 percent.

[uls]

ADB downgrades Philippine economic growth outlook | Money | GMA News Online

i'd downgrade PH too

a lot of the gains this decade was coz of favorable external factors

specially Fed monetary policy (zero rates & QE)

tons of dollars flowed to EM like PH in search of yield

now the reverse is happening

rising US interest rates & reverse QE pulling $$$ back to the US

high tide ---> low tide

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and PH enjoyed some years of low oil prices and strong currency which was a tailwind to the economy

now rising oil prices and weaker PHP are headwinds

[uls]

PH is pretty much helpless when faced with unfavorable external factors

the Fed is on a tightening path so PH has no choice but to raise interest rates to defend the peso

otherwise the peso will keep falling which will make imports more expensive and drive inflation even higher

but higher interest rates = higher borrowing cost which can slow down the economy

damn if you do damn if you don't