Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

**Juan Martinez** · October 16th, 2015 09:41 AM

Lando now a typhoon; Storm Signal No. 1 up over 13 Luzon provinces | SciTech | GMA News Online

**crazy_boy** · October 16th, 2015 10:29 AM

Originally Posted by CVT

I hope it does not rain today, until noontime tomorrow...

"The measure of a man is what he does with power" LJIOHF!

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umulan this morning sa manila area. buti hindi madumi yung jimny after.

**crazy_boy** · October 16th, 2015 10:29 AM

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**Monseratto** · October 16th, 2015 10:37 AM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...-a-category-4/

Tropical Storm Koppu could bring disastrous rain to Philippines as Category 4
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By Angela Fritz October 14

Tropical Storm Koppu, currently disorganized and weak in the northwest Pacific, is expected to explode in intensity over the next four days as it tracks toward the northern Philippines. Koppu could make landfall as a Category 4 typhoon in Luzon over the weekend and linger there for more than three days, with flooding storm surge and over three feet of rain.

About 600 miles southeast of Luzon in the far western Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Koppu was a modest cyclone on Tuesday in a somewhat unfavorable environment. The wind shear is high, which acts to tear cyclones apart, and the thunderstorm activity is disorganized. Wind speeds are a manageable 45 mph.

But that is about to change as Koppu tracks west toward the Philippines through very warm ocean waters and a favorable atmospheric environment to strengthen into a powerful typhoon. Periods of rapid intensification are possible as the storm approaches the Luzon. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is predicting Koppu will be a monster Category 4 typhoon with winds over 140 mph as it makes landfall in northeast Luzon, though the intensity forecast remains notably uncertain.

The typhoon’s winds may prove to be just one of Luzon’s worries. Forecast models suggest the storm will linger over the northern Philippines for three and a half days from Saturday into Tuesday. If that turns into reality, it would mean days of *******ial rain with the amplification effects of mountainous terrain and flooding storm surge as onshore winds drive ocean water over land.

In this scenario, the GFS model is predicting up to 50 inches — four feet — of rain in northern Luzon. Deadly mudslides would be an unquestionable threat. A non-landfall scenario for Luzon could actually deliver the worst blow to the island, since the storm’s core wouldn’t be weakened by the tall mountains.

While the final track of the storm is still very uncertain, Koppu will likely continue to track west over the next few days before an eventual turn to the north. When that turn occurs will determine if the Philippines or Taiwan end up feeling the typhoon’s greatest impacts.

Angela Fritz is an atmospheric scientist and The Post's deputy weather editor.

**Monseratto** · October 16th, 2015 11:18 AM

Typhoon Koppu to Target Philippines With Life-Threatening Flooding

Typhoon Koppu to Target Philippines With Life-Threatening Flooding
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
October 15, 2015; 9:30 PM ET

Typhoon Koppu will put lives and property across Luzon Island of the Philippines in danger this weekend and early next week.

Koppu developed into a typhoon early Friday morning local time and is currently churning between Guam and the Philippines. Disruptive wind shear has prevented Koppu from taking advantage of the warm waters of the Pacific and strengthening significantly. That should change by this weekend as Koppu approaches Luzon.

"Rapid intensification is likely to occur right before Koppu reaches Luzon," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty. "Koppu could become a significant typhoon, possibly the equivalent to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane."

Koppu will not only strengthen as it approaches the Philippines but will also slow down significantly. The combination of a powerful and slow-moving typhoon could spell a disastrous situation for residents and communities in its path, which will be northern Luzon Island in Koppu's case.

From this weekend into early next week, Koppu will crawl toward or into northern Luzon Island before eventually turning to the north. Koppu is expected to make landfall, but how quickly it turns north will determine the duration of life-threatening conditions for northern Luzon.

While damaging winds are a concern, the greatest threat will be life-threatening flooding from days of *******ial rainfall.

"A total of 300 to 600 mm (12 to 24 inches) of rain is expected to be widespread," stated Douty. There will even be localized amounts upwards or in excess of 900 mm (36 inches). Such rain is sure to trigger severe and life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

"The most significant rain will fall in the mountainous terrain of northern Luzon," added Douty.

Residents in Baguio, Bangui, Aparri, Tuguegarao and Pagudpud are among those across northern Luzon who are being urged to prepare for the impending severe flood danger. Heed all evacuation orders and begin making plans to seek shelter away from areas prone to flooding and mudslides.

Streams and rivers will quickly turn into raging waterways and flood neighboring homes and land, roads and bridges can get cut off and low-lying communities could get turned into lakes.

While dangerous flooding is the primary concern, Koppu will also bring a threat of damaging winds, coastal flooding and extremely rough seas to northern Luzon.

"Wind damage will be greatest along the northeast coast of Luzon with wind in excess of 160 kph (100 mph) possible," Douty continued. The damaging wind threat will become more expansive and severe across northern Luzon the farther Koppu tracks inland. The potential for winds to knock down trees will only increase as the rain persists and further saturates the soil.

Based on current indications, Koppu will stay far enough to the north for Manila to escape most of the impacts, however heavy rain may push into the city and surrounding areas on Sunday night into Monday. During this time there will be a heightened risk for flash flooding.

Impacts from Koppu will not be limited to the Philippines. Taiwan, Japan and far eastern China remain on alert for potential hazards next week.

The longer Koppu sits over Luzon, the more time high pressure will have to build north of the cyclone producing more of a easterly component to the steering flow which would then likely lead to the cyclone tracking somewhere between Hong Kong and Taiwan during the second half of next week.

This scenario would bring the greatest threats to western Taiwan and the east coast of China. While Koppu would likely be a much weaker storm than when it impacts the Philippines, locally damaging winds and flooding rainfall will still be a serious risk.

"If Koppu instead continues to the north past Taiwan and into the East China Sea, it will encounter increased wind shear and should significantly weaken," Douty said. "Because of this, if there are impacts to Japan, we do not think they will be significant."

AccuWeather meteorologists will continue to provide updates on the expected track and more precise details of its potential impacts to lives and property in the upcoming days.

Content contributed by AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister.

**EQAddict** · October 16th, 2015 11:23 AM

This could be flooding of biblical proportions. Terrible.

**Monseratto** · October 16th, 2015 11:26 AM

**Jun aka Pekto** · October 16th, 2015 11:27 AM

Originally Posted by Monseratto

The social media locals are panicking over this article...

Oh well. It's not the first time northern Luzon got slammed.

Looking at Google Maps..... Gee. I wonder why the west coast have many cities while the east coast is sparsely populated? Much greener too.

**minicarph** · October 16th, 2015 12:47 PM

there are 2 things going on here: it is hyped so that people will stock up and may cashflow sng mga businesses for the upcoming sem break na walang kita as well as All saints days

Or this storm is really powerful that what is forecasted will shift to Manila, not the North.

**CVT** · October 16th, 2015 01:02 PM

Originally Posted by Jun aka Pekto

Oh well. It's not the first time northern Luzon got slammed.

Looking at Google Maps..... Gee. I wonder why the west coast have many cities while the east coast is sparsely populated? Much greener too.

The eastern board bears the full brunt of the typhoons (coming in from the sea)...

The Cordillera Range weakens it a bit,- and then it hits the populace.....

However, in spite of that model,- it still is disastrous...

Also, in the early part of the typhoon season,- Luzon gets the wham.

However,- during the "winter", i.e., ice/snow in the north (high pressure area - so the storm cannot take the NE direction,- but rather a bit flat ENE direction),- then it is the turn of Visayas/Mindanao to get blasted...

"The measure of a man is what he does with power" LJIOHF!

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