Weather TALK [forecasts, etc]

**Jun aka Pekto** · October 27th, 2009 12:12 AM

Originally Posted by valvura

We have an erratic PAGASA who keeps on blaming erratic weather systems (e.g. Ramil). Though conservative forecasting and erring on the side of safety, we cannot discount the money spent and effort exerted for 'preparedness'. JMA et al have been forecasting turnaround of a Ramil a full week ahead of PAGASA & PAGASA didn't forecast a turnaround not until Ramil actually turned around, making PAGASA a bonafide POSTCASTER, prolonging the fear and anxiety of the people.

And now, instead of explaining the turnaround of Ramil & the reason they deviated from the flock of credible weather forecasting agencies, they're now focusing on a new weather system 23 of which information is available from JTWC.

There's enough blame to go around. Even JTWC was way off. The rest just kind of kept quiet hoping a consistent trend would show up. The JMA too had been wrong in the past.

As for being prepared, you should be prepared 24 hours a day knowing you live in a typhoon-prone region.

I mean of you have a better way of doing their job, let's hear it.

**Jun aka Pekto** · October 27th, 2009 12:32 AM

Originally Posted by Monseratto

Looks like it...Hope this track will be way off the mark like the last one. Manila is on its sights.

The models have been notoriously unreliable beyond 48 hours. But looking at long range GFS products, the subtropical ridge over the Pacific and strong high pressure over the mainland will keep the track westward.

Again, would I put money on it? Again, no. At least not until I've seen several model runs and detect a consistency.

If the model run pans out, there's another one right on the heels of 23W.

**Monseratto** · October 27th, 2009 08:12 AM

This new one is tracking a lot faster than Ramil, which took a week to close in and then fortunately quit at the last minute.

**Jun aka Pekto** · October 27th, 2009 05:57 PM

As of 4pm, the observation for RPLL is:

RPLL 270800Z 12008KT 9999 FEW025 31/22 Q1009 NOSIG RMK A2980

A temperature of 31C and dewpoint of 22?

Just wondering if it feels a little less humid this afternoon over there with the winds coming from the interior rather than from the west. I noticed there hasn't been much of a southwesterly flow since yesterday.

**Monseratto** · October 28th, 2009 12:02 PM

Update typhoon MIRINAE

**valvura** · October 28th, 2009 12:31 PM

Originally Posted by Jun aka Pekto

There's enough blame to go around. Even JTWC was way off. The rest just kind of kept quiet hoping a consistent trend would show up. The JMA too had been wrong in the past.
As for being prepared, you should be prepared 24 hours a day knowing you live in a typhoon-prone region.
I mean of you have a better way of doing their job, let's hear it.

I can now view several typhoon warning agencies using the internet and this practice is now being applied by leading media stations e.g. GMA & ABS-CBN, in their weather reporting.
IMO, baka puede mag interpolate muna PAGASA if wala pa silang establish na direction (due to crude equipment?). Anyway, it's only PAGASA ang walang pang storm trajectory forecast until now, notwithstanding lahat ng agencies ay nag forecast na tatama sa central-northern Luzon.

**Monseratto** · October 28th, 2009 04:55 PM

For those going to the cemetary, I hope common sense would prevail if the weather turns sour.

**valvura** · October 28th, 2009 06:42 PM

**Jun aka Pekto** · October 28th, 2009 07:14 PM

Originally Posted by valvura

I can now view several typhoon warning agencies using the internet and this practice is now being applied by leading media stations e.g. GMA & ABS-CBN, in their weather reporting.
IMO, baka puede mag interpolate muna PAGASA if wala pa silang establish na direction (due to crude equipment?). Anyway, it's only PAGASA ang walang pang storm trajectory forecast until now, notwithstanding lahat ng agencies ay nag forecast na tatama sa central-northern Luzon.

Beats me. Maybe it's because the tracks change so often although in this latest one, I don't see any reason to doubt the westward track. It's almost winter far up to the north and the Siberian High will soon establish itself along with the subtropical ridge being dominant farther south.

You could always ask PAGASA why they don't have a forecast track. If you don't provide feedback to them, they won't have any incentive to change.

**Monseratto** · October 28th, 2009 11:20 PM

Typhoon Santi is moving faster than expected and may make landfall friday morning or even earlier. Be extremely cautious, especially those travelling...

Robert Sawi, weather forecaster for the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, said they expect Santi was expected to intensify into a typhoon and enter the Philippines’ area of responsibility Wednesday night.

Sawi said the storm was spotted 1,390 kilometers east of Central Luzon. It was packing maximum winds of 120 kilometers per hour with gustiness of up to 150 kilometers per hour. It was forecast to move west at 22 kilometers per hour. At this pace, it could make landfall on Saturday.

“Based on the models we have seen, it is likely to make landfall somewhere in northern or central Luzon,” Sawi said. “There will be lots of rain when the storm comes.”

While it was possible for Santi to slow down, as previous storms did, Sawi said it was unlikely for this howler to change course and will continue to move westward because of the ridge of a high-pressure area extending over a wide area north of the country.

“That ridge is serving like an umbrella blocking a northward course,” he said.

Sawi advised the public to continue monitoring Pagasa’s bulletins on the progress of the the storm and bring umbrellas and other rain gear when they go to cemeteries.

“If possible, it would be better if they stay at home if the storm comes because we expect a lot of rain, especially in the northern part of Luzon,” Sawi said.